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  • Results 1 to 3 of 3
    1. #1
        sparkfiredust is offline Apprentice Wizard

      • sparkfiredust's Wizard Stats
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        •  Steven DragonFlame
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        •  69
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        •  Celestia
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        •  Life
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        •  Kitty
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        •  Wintry Elf
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      Drop rate influenced by population / time of day (Unfair?)

      [This is a theory post, so it could be fact or fiction. Don't bet on this unless you're experimenting.]


      Everyone knows that couch potato drop rates can be inconsistent, and some times definitely seem to have higher luck. I believe people confirmed that the couch potato pool resets every monday or tuesday, which made it better to farm troubled warriors on those days.


      I have noticed similarly sketchy drop rates around other areas of the game.

      Farming ghultures, I had to make notes on an absurd drop rate. (below are edited notes)

      Aug. 16, 2020:

      "when farming in a server that i ported to my friend, i was getting good drops every fight (CP / FoaV)

      when going to a populated server, I was not getting these mega seeds (got one grapes of wrath in five fights)

      So my theories
      . certain servers have better drops at certain times
      . less populated servers have a larger pool of rare seeds (higher drop rate)
      . soloing fights gives more rare seeds.

      3 is prob wrong, i tried soloing
      2 kind of makes sense, in that the pool of seeds hasnít been depleted in low pop servers, so the game artificially allows more seeds to drop.
      1 kind of makes sense, itís kingsisle
      or theory 4 - a server with multiple people (afk), but only one person farming


      Pixie server (ported to a friend in caravan, two wizards afk)
      fish fish couch (jumped to a high pop server, got poor drops, then jumped back)
      couch, couch, no, red huck, couch couch, no, no (2 friends started farming instead of afk), fickle, grapes of wrath
      no, fish, no, no, no no, no
      no, no, no, no, no no, no, no, no, no

      Phoenix realm (one person realm)
      no, no, no, no

      Ambros realm (six people 2 fights)
      no, grapes, pink, no, red couch, no, no, pink, fish



      my two theories

      - luck runs out. farming a while, burns out the drop pool. I was starting to get no seeds at all, instead of whack seeds like a few days before when farming.

      - more people in the server / realm increases drop pool, but more people farming at the same time depletes the seed pool.
      Theory - find a server where someone is afk. then youíll find a lot of seeds. Maybe itís cause the rate of seed replenishing. Each person causes the game to replenish at a faster rate, more people, more seeds replenished, simply to keep up the drops proportional to population"


      So what did I want to do? My theory was that more people in a server increased the rate of rare seeds like CP and FoaV being added to ghulture pools. However this was counteracted by the fact that more people farming in a server would deplete the CP and FoaV, so the large pool of good seeds would be evenly distributed along a large population.


      What I wanted to test was paying players with empowers to afk in caravan, and then for me to solo farm ghultures to test drop rates. However, I already accumulated a 69 plot of couch potatoes and 69 fish on a vine, so there was no need for me to farm ghultures at that point in time.


      The data is confusing, so I'll give the explanation. Every fight, I wrote the rare drop (fish on a vine, couch potatoes) or no to represent no rare drops. As we can see from the first 9 fights, I got 8 rare seeds - 2 foav, 5 CP, and 1 red huckleberries. That's an insane statistic. There's no world a player could get 5 CP from 9 fights.

      (An evidence for this theory is that since grizzleheim couch potato seeds are finite, then if we assume caravan seeds are finite. Having 5 CP be generated hourly means one player could farm 5 seeds an hour. If 2 players we're in a server, then they'd split the 5 seeds, so each would get 2 seeds per hour, meaning group farming is horrible. To counteract horrible group farming, kingsisle could make the CP generation greater when more players are present in a server in caravan. i.e. 10 CP being generated hourly)



      So this brings me back to today. The last week I've been farming wooden skeleton keys to farm spirit of ignorance in crab alley for a mount. By far the most recommended farming area is rooftop. So I've had successful farming and poor farming at rooftop.

      This is my recent data:

      4 AM / 5 AM farming: 6 keys / 10 runs (60%)

      2 PM / 3 PM farming: 4 keys / 15 runs (26.7%) (weirdly the 3 keys came in 3 runs in a row)

      I'm still collecting data, but... ___________ This makes me mad. I've wasted so much time testing all the wooden key farming spots, and to think that the wooden key drop rate is probably unfairly higher when less players are online farming, or midnight when drops are replenished. I've farmed all wiz city areas except bastilla, I've farmed jade oni, oakheart, tree of life. The best area to farm is probably rooftop.

      This system of rigged drop rates is whack. Sure I probably have the optimal farming strats now that I deciphered these farming secrets, but I still don't know whether I should think if variable drop rates is a good system or bad system.


      Bonus testing
      8-10 PM
      5 keys / 15 runs (33.3%)

      So I think this proves there was something about the first 10 runs. I may have missed one run for these recent 15 runs, may have not.

      30 runs added together, 9/30=30% / run
      or 9/ 60 bosses = 15% drop per boss.

      That's a sample size of 60 kills. Rerunning the calculator with 15% drop rate, the chance to get 6 keys in 10 runs or 6/20 bosses is: 4.53%.
      Chance for 6 keys or more is 6.83%.

      Intuitively, when I was doing the first 10 runs, I felt, the drop rates were cracked since the keys were dropping like rain.



      New data: 11pm-1:30am
      15 runs, 9 keys acquired. 9/15= 60% drop rate.
      Note, last 3 runs gave 0 keys.

      I'll conclude, for 25 runs from 11 pm and later, I got 15 keys at 60% per run.
      For 30 runs from 2pm to 10pm, I got 9 keys at 30% per run.

      So the total data set is 55 runs, or 110 boss kills. It's still not conclusive evidence but this is hecka sus.
      Last edited by sparkfiredust; 4-18-21 at 2:43:02 AM.

    2. #2
      Robobot1747's Avatar
        Robobot1747 is offline Journeyman Wizard

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        •  Kane WildThief
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        •  100
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        •  Khrysalis
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        •  Death
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        •  Lord Vaden
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        •  Enchanted Armament
      Status: Bring me a bigger gun!
       
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      Re: Drop rate influenced by population / time of day (Unfair?)

      It seems to me like you're generalizing from a data set that is rather small. You simply don't have a sample that I would say is statistically significant.
      "Fire can be quenched. Storms can dissipate. Myths can simply be forgotten. But Death... Death is constant. Death has existed long before you came to be and it will exist long after it takes you."

    3. #3
        sparkfiredust is offline Apprentice Wizard

      • sparkfiredust's Wizard Stats
        •  Wizard's Name:
        •  Steven DragonFlame
        •  Wizard's Level:
        •  69
        •  World:
        •  Celestia
        •  Wizard's School:
        •  Life
        •  Pet's Name:
        •  Kitty
        •  Pet's Type:
        •  Wintry Elf
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      Re: Drop rate influenced by population / time of day (Unfair?)

      Quote Originally Posted by Robobot1747 View Post
      It seems to me like you're generalizing from a data set that is rather small. You simply don't have a sample that I would say is statistically significant.
      That's true, it's only 10 runs from 4 AM, which is very small.

      I was mad mad cause I wanted to get the purple fairy wings mount from spirit of ignorance, but couldn't get it after 15+ keys.

      I really should've enjoyed the process.


      That being said, I do think this data is insanely stupid. For key drops, 10 runs is 20 bosses that can drop keys since 2nd boss and 3rd boss both can drop. So 6/20 fights had a key, a 30% drop rate. And 4/30 fights had a key, 13.3%.

      To put this into terms. If you play Pokemon on the Showdown server, iron head has a 30% flinch rate. Ice beam and thunderbolt have 10% chance to freeze/paralyze.


      If the legal drop rate for keys is 10% per boss. Then let's say I used ice beam 10 times against a player. If I froze him 3 out of 10 times, a 30% rate, he'd cry hax, which means I'm only winning with RNG, especially if it's unfairly lucky. I can't even recall someone getting incredible freeze luck, despite watching hundreds of matches of pokemon. (vaguely I remember there may have been one match with some freeze luck)

      The chance of ice beam freezing 30% of the team when it's supposed to be 10% of the time, is like Dream luck. If we actually calculated the probability of this occurring, using a calculator I found.

      Probability for success: 0.1333,
      Trials: 20,
      Successes: 6

      The probability for 6 successes is 2.93%
      The probability for 6 or more successes is 4.12%

      So Maybe it's not Dream luck, but if I can verify that the daytime drop rate is 13.33% per boss, then it proves the nighttime statistics are relevant.

      Is it statistically insigificant? If you flip a coin and it hits head 8/10 times, 90% probability the coin is rigged, cause the probability of it being random chance is too low. Human beings can empirically measure the probability. The person who first caught Dream's unfair speedrun drop rate, was a fellow speedrunner MinecrAvenger. It's pretty obvious he watched Dream's runs, measured the drop rates intuitively in his head, found it suspicious, then went back to collect the data of Dream's pearl drops that proved his theory that Dream's odds were not quite the same.

      MinecrAvenger found that Dream got 42 pearls from 262 piglin trades, when the fair probability was that dream should've gotten 12/262.

      When I'm talking about my couch potato run, honestly it's nuts. 5/9 dropping couch potatoes. If someone can come out and give me proof that they got 5 couch potatoes from 9 ghulture battles, I'll call you jesus. Let's say we do 100 ghulture fights per hour, and get 4 seeds. The drop rate is 4%. If we plug that back into the calculator, the probability for getting 5/9 CP is 0.001095861%.

      These odds are kind of insane. The "only" way to disprove it is to find out that the drop rates for CP and keys are higher than 4% and 13.33%. Currently I'm still farming keys, so I might get more data. Though I'd say it's only fair for me to give myself the benefit of the doubt, considering it's "proven" that the Grizzleheim CP pool gets replenished every monday/tuesday. So just how the CP drop rate is variable, I will be aware that other drop rates can fluctuate as well.



      Also, just for myself I'd like to talk about how these insane drops occurred in insane circumstances. I only had 2 afk people in caravan ghulture area once, and that was also the only time that I had gotten 5/9 CP. Though I've had 1 person afk in the spawn area of caravan. And the one time I got 6 keys per 10 runs was at 4AM, the first time I decided to farm keys at 4AM. What this means, is if you change a variable of an experiment, and the outcome changes, it's highly likely the isolated variable affected the result.

      Similarly if I opened 10 packs, and got nothing. But my friend gifted me 3 packs, and each pack gave gold. I'd think my friend was rigging the odds as if he had rigged luck. But obviously this scenario has never happened to me, since players don't have rigged luck.

      The only person who makes me think their luck is rigged is Ferric. He got pigsie on his 6th loremaster run, and life mastery on his first waterworks run. I swear Ratbeard was rigging his odds, to make new players that were watching his series want to play the game. And he also got krok hat on his 1st run.........

      The potential problem with me sussing his drop rates is that he plays more than everyone else, so he fights more bosses and has more chances to be "lucky" and get good loot. i.e. I haven't watched his darkmoor run so maybe he didn't have good drops for darkmoor and other dungeons. Though it's still incredible someone gets pigsie the best universal school lore spell and life mastery the best mastery that also enables him to cast pigsie.
      Last edited by Willowdreamer; 4-18-21 at 8:22:54 AM. Reason: removed outside link

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