What did you accomplish today?

[sparkyflamefire]

Seriously though a 4% chance in fizzling and I fizzled! I don't know much about statistics but I'm sure if I did that spell 100 times, the odds on fizzling even once must be lower than 4%, Given it's the same odds every single time you use the spell. I doubt there's 100 sided dice but if there was, I would love to see someone rolled it 100 times just to see if the numbers 1, 2, 3 and 4 came up just once.

I did take some statistics classes in college, and the ballpark figure is that with a 4% fizzle rate, if you do the spell 100 times, it should fizzle on average 4 times.

A 4% fizzle rate is another way of saying it has a 96% success rate.

With a 96% success rate, if you do it 100 times, it should succeed EVERY time (.96)^100 = 1.68% of the time.

So the probability of it fizzling at least once in those 100 tries is 1 - .0168 = 98.3%

In other words, the more times you try to cast the spell, the higher the probability that it will fizzle at least once.

When people say that the dice have no memory, they mean that if you have already flipped a coin 99 times and it has come up heads every single time, then the next time you flip it there is still a 50% chance of getting another heads on that flip. But if you start from scratch and flip it 100 times, then chances are miniscule that you will get 100 heads in a row.

[bluedreamer]

I did take some statistics classes in college, and the ballpark figure is that with a 4% fizzle rate, if you do the spell 100 times, it should fizzle on average 4 times.

A 4% fizzle rate is another way of saying it has a 96% success rate.

With a 96% success rate, if you do it 100 times, it should succeed EVERY time (.96)^100 = 1.68% of the time.

So the probability of it fizzling at least once in those 100 tries is 1 - .0168 = 98.3%

In other words, the more times you try to cast the spell, the higher the probability that it will fizzle at least once.

When people say that the dice have no memory, they mean that if you have already flipped a coin 99 times and it has come up heads every single time, then the next time you flip it there is still a 50% chance of getting another heads on that flip. But if you start from scratch and flip it 100 times, then chances are miniscule that you will get 100 heads in a row.

Isn't that the point? It's 4% every single time, as in this case. Obviously there's no statistician who plays the game, however the odds, statistically… As someone without a true background in statistics, should practically never happen. I learned as a life wizard, even with 10% fail, you really fail more than 10%.

The game stats, if I was to be honest, are not what they tell us. Unless you are 100% on any stat.

[sparkyflamefire]

Isn't that the point? It's 4% every single time, as in this case. Obviously there's no statistician who plays the game, however the odds, statistically… As someone without a true background in statistics, should practically never happen. I learned as a life wizard, even with 10% fail, you really fail more than 10%.

The game stats, if I was to be honest, are not what they tell us. Unless you are 100% on any stat.

I was speaking from a truly statistical perspective. I have noticed that in the game, that often we do get more fizzles than probability would predict. And that fizzles tend to occur even more frequently in critical situatiions. For example, I get more fizzles trying to cast an AOE in a level 2 fight in the deckathalon than at any other time.

[bluedreamer]

I was speaking from a truly statistical perspective. I have noticed that in the game, that often we do get more fizzles than probability would predict. And that fizzles tend to occur even more frequently in critical situatiions. For example, I get more fizzles trying to cast an AOE in a level 2 fight in the deckathalon than at any other time.

That really doesn't surprise me!

I remember when I was new to the game the amount of times that a fizzle ended up killing me. So I always aim for the best possible accuracy I can get especially when questing. The advent of accuracy jewels was one of the best additions to the game.

[RookieRecurve]

Today's wizarding adventures mostly revolved around Storm Deckathalon stuff. I have beat the 8th floor, and can craft the level 8 deck, but I am going to keep my level 6 deck until all of my wizards have achieved the Rune Pack reward. I can get the first three floors done in about 10 minutes, so it isn't too long to get up to that 225 point level. Looking at the requirements to craft the level 10 decks, it is going to take me a few events to get enough reagents to craft one of those!

On the pet front, I have been mostly working on Deckathalon pets. Something with a whole bunch of May-Cast heals will be nice, although a lot of these pets are failing at Ancient. Oh well, slow and steady, and I will eventually have a nice collection of pets ready for the towers. I don't wish to farm for gold, so I am relying on my gardens to keep my hatching habit well financed.

Speaking of gardening, my Ninja Fig/Deadly Ninja Fig garden is coming along. I recently watched a tutorial on how to make a single layer 69 large-plot garden, so once I get enough Ninja Figs, I will create that garden. Currently, I am using a 4x9 plot. I am still growing Silver Trumpet Vine for the gold, Fickle Pickle for reagents and Steal Ward, and Orange Dandelion for Parchment.

- - - Updated - - -

I was finally able to craft the Doomsday Krok Gauntlet, using time limes acquired solely from doing special events: Deckathalon, and Scroll of Fortune.

Have you run the dungeon yet? Any good drops?

- - - Updated - - -

I've been working my little death in Avalon today and finally opened up Avalon Gardening! Annoyingly I didn't have enough gold but eventually crossed the line to buy "plant all" the single best gardening spell … At least in my opinion.

I wish this spell was available at lower levels, or that the TC wasn't so incredibly rare.

[bluedreamer]

My baby storm has just finished Azteca fishing. My baby fire is slowly working his way through Mooshu.

I wish this spell was available at lower levels, or that the TC wasn't so incredibly rare.

I completely agree! My baby fire wizard has been a top-level gardener for maybe seven or eight years and should be able to train it.

[sparkyflamefire]

Have you run the dungeon yet? Any good drops?

Quite disappointed. The boss battle is a typical example of what I have come to hate about cheating bosses. Not that it was hard, at least not once I checked out the wiki to find out the cheats, but I hate having to do that.

As for drops, not much there. Did get an elemental retriever reagent, but that's about it.

[Flash33]

Attempted my first raid with the Central Guild yesterday, and while it did end in failure (we could only beat 2 of the 3 wave 1 bosses before time ran out) I did learn some stuff for the next time I try it, and I even got some new badges out of it to boot, so that's something at least.

[Sierra SeaSong]

Attempted my first raid with the Central Guild yesterday, and while it did end in failure (we could only beat 2 of the 3 wave 1 bosses before time ran out) I did learn some stuff for the next time I try it, and I even got some new badges out of it to boot, so that's something at least.

Removal of the damage cap in test should help out with raids, still 40% pierce bare minimum is still needed, but all those 190 damage fires will be happy!

[RookieRecurve]

Quite disappointed. The boss battle is a typical example of what I have come to hate about cheating bosses. Not that it was hard, at least not once I checked out the wiki to find out the cheats, but I hate having to do that.

As for drops, not much there. Did get an elemental retriever reagent, but that's about it.

It's really a shame that the effort (or cost in crowns) that is required to get a gauntlet, often leaves us with less-than-impressive drops. I have Winterbane and Sinbad gauntlet, and I think they are not bad. Winterbane used to be great for snacks, and some of the drops, but they are not being updated, so their relevancy wains fairly quickly.