Originally Posted by

**sparkyflamefire**
I did take some statistics classes in college, and the ballpark figure is that with a 4% fizzle rate, if you do the spell 100 times, it should fizzle on average 4 times.

A 4% fizzle rate is another way of saying it has a 96% success rate.

With a 96% success rate, if you do it 100 times, it should succeed EVERY time (.96)^100 = 1.68% of the time.

So the probability of it fizzling at least once in those 100 tries is 1 - .0168 = 98.3%

In other words, the more times you try to cast the spell, the higher the probability that it will fizzle at least once.

When people say that the dice have no memory, they mean that if you have already flipped a coin 99 times and it has come up heads every single time, then the next time you flip it there is still a 50% chance of getting another heads on that flip. But if you start from scratch and flip it 100 times, then chances are miniscule that you will get 100 heads in a row.

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